Well, if things were beginning to get serious last week, then they certainly are this time around. We’re well into conference play, and it’s time to start separating the wheat from the chaff — particularly in the Greater Neuse River 7A.
Let’s have a look at a full slate of Week 7 games:
Southeast Raleigh at Clayton
Records: Southeast Raleigh 5-1, 2-0 GNR 7A; Clayton 6-0, 2-0 GNR 7A
Last Week: Southeast Raleigh edged Fuquay-Varina, 33-31, in its Greater Neuse River 7A opener while Clayton had the opposite sort of game with a 55-7 win over Smithfield-Selma.
Massey Ratings line: Clayton -15.5
Skinny: I didn’t need Scott Chadwick’s excellent game notes to remind me that these teams split a pair of meetings last fall, with each winning on the other’s home field. The Bulldogs won, 22-19, in this fixture last year and in the fourth round of the 7A playoffs, Clayton returned the favor with a 35-21 win at Nixon-Fowler Stadium.
That last result, coupled with Southeast Raleigh’s tougher-than-expected win over Fuquay-Varina last week might be why we’re looking at a 15.5-point spread from the computers. While I agree that Clayton is the clear favorite, I’d be leery on that point.
Fuquay-Varina built a 24-13 lead last week in what had to be a lookahead spot of sorts for Southeast Raleigh. You can bet that Clayton will get the same level of resistance from the Bulldogs that they offered Cardinal Gibbons in a 23-21 road loss back on Sept. 10.
The SER offense has been ground dependent this season, with Christian Freeman (845 yards, 10 TD, 11.6 YPC) and James Adams IV (680, 7 TD, 10.8 YPC) carrying the load for a unit that averages 10.9 yards per carry as a team. That’s a ridiculous number that makes me wonder why they’ve tried to throw as much as they have this fall. Four different quarterbacks have combined for 850 yards, eight touchdowns and four interceptions to go along with a 46.6 completion percentage.
Meanwhile, stopping the run has been at the heart of Clayton’s perfect start to the campaign. The Comets have allowed negative rushing yards in two different games this fall, and a good number of the nearly 700 yards allowed as a unit have come against reserves in running clock situations.
Southeast Raleigh is just as talented as Clayton in some spots, but on paper, the Comets appear to be a more complete team. Damacio Cueto is having a strong senior season at quarterback, Terris Hobbs is finally reaching his potential at running back, there’s a bevy of talented skill position folks, bolstered by a beefy and experience offensive line. Not a lot of nits to pick there.
The defense is elite, too, allowing just a shade more than eight points per game. There are two FBS recruits (Ta’Shaun Walker and AK Crumel) in the secondary and a bunch of fast, talented guys holding down the front seven.
Bottom line? Southeast Raleigh is good. Clayton has the chance to be special.
Prediction: Clayton 35, Southeast Raleigh 20
Garner at Smithfield-Selma
Records: Garner 3-2, 0-1 GNR 7A; Smithfield-Selma 0-6, 0-2 GNR 7A
Last Week: Garner enjoyed a bye while Smithfield-Selma was on the wrong end of a 55-7 scoreline against Clayton.
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: Smithfield-Selma -42.5
Skinny: A blowout loss to Millbrook got the year off on the wrong foot for the Trojans, and a 27-23 loss at Southeast Raleigh probably didn’t do much for their mood heading into the bye week. Their quarterback, Christian Ormandy, is a Shrine Bowler, so keep an eye on him.
The spread tells you how the computers feel about this one. It’s yet another uphill climb for Smithfield-Selma. The effort is there. The numbers and overall talent, less so.
Prediction: Garner 49, Smithfield-Selma 14
Cleveland at Fuquay-Varina
Records: Cleveland 5-0, 1-0 GNR 7A; Fuquay-Varina 2-4, 0-2 GNR 7A
Last Week: Cleveland demolished South Garner, 42-0, while Fuquay-Varina missed a chance to turn the league on its ear with a 33-31 loss at Southeast Raleigh.
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: Cleveland -35.5
Skinny: We’re having a different discussion if the Bengals could have held on to an 11-point halftime lead against Southeast Raleigh last time out. Instead, it’s a near-miss for a team that’s dropped three of its last four. You could look on the bright side and say that they’re a handful of points away, seven to be exact, from being 4-2. Of course, that’s like me saying that I’m a full head of hair away from not being bald.
Or maybe not. Anyway, Cleveland has hit the accelerator since its Week 1 weirdness against Pinecrest, winning by 43, 24, 29 and 42 points. The Ram offense is humming along with Owen Hulbert (79-of-121, 953 yards, 12 TD, 4 INT) at the controls and Kaleb Ferrell (440 yards, 5 TD) and Hulbert (125 yards, 7 TD) carrying the ground game.
And don’t look now, but that defense is starting to get a little more comfortable, too. I like where this team is headed, and while some other hurdles remain, it’s time to circle Halloween eve on the calendar — if it wasn’t already.
Prediction: Cleveland 35, Fuquay-Varina 7
Corinth Holders at Wakefield
Records: Corinth Holders 1-4, 0-2 CAP 8A; Wakefield 2-3, 1-1 CAP 8A
Last Week: Corinth Holders fell to Broughton, 39-35, while Wakefield edged Enloe, 48-41.
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: Corinth Holders -6.5
Skinny: Wakefield quarterback Landon Brogdon had the game of his life last week, going 24-of-38 for 339 yards and six touchdowns — and the Wolverines needed all of it to beat back Enloe. It might not be the best time for Corinth Holders to run into a hot quarterback, on the back of allowing Broughton’s Everett Borden to throw for 425 yards and five scores last week.
Hampton Gibbs also had his best game as a varsity quarterback last week, completing 11 of his 15 throws for 168 yards and a couple of scores for the Pirates. But it’s another young man, sophomore running back Shamar Powell that might hold the key to this one. In a developing theme for this section, he also had his best varsity game last week (110 yards, TD), and a repeat effort would not only balance out an inconsistent Corinth Holders offense, but it would keep Brogdon and a suddenly potent Wakefield offense on the sideline.
I’m not sure I’m buying Wakefield as an offensive powerhouse. We also know the Wolverine defense, which is allowing just shy of 40 points a night, can be had. But Corinth Holders has been, pardon the pun, a leaky vessel this season. It’s a must-win game for both teams in terms of playoff positioning, particularly so for the Pirates. After all, they know firsthand that four wins isn’t likely going to cut it in terms of postseason eligibility.
Prediction: Corinth Holders 38, Wakefield 35
West Johnston at Triton
Records: West Johnston 2-3, 1-1 Carolina Pines 6A; Triton 5-0, 2-0 Carolina Pines 6A
Last Week: West Johnston took down Lee County, 31-24, while Triton swatted Southern Lee, 49-20
Media Watch: Hudl (maybe)
Massey Ratings line: Triton -14.5
Skinny: Why is an undefeated Triton squad only a two-touchdown home favorite over a 2-3 West Johnston squad? It could have a little something to do with the fact that those five wins have come against foes with a combined record of 4-23. The common opponent is Lee County. Triton beat the Yellow Jackets, 37-34, two weeks ago, so we have a little transitive property action to mull over.
Last week, I thought 20 points would be enough for West Johnston last week. It turns out 25 would have been fine. So, let’s go back to the numbers well again. I think Ashton Tennessee, who rushed for 221 yards and two scores last week, is the marker. If he reaches 120 yards, I think West Johnston has a real chance to pull an upset here.
Prediction: West Johnston 21, Triton 20
Southern Lee at South Johnston
Records: Southern Lee 0-5, 0-2 CP 6A; South Johnston 1-4, 0-2 CP 6A
Last Week: Southern Lee fell to Triton, 49-20, while South Johnston lost at Union Pines, 49-15.
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: South Johnston -33.5
Skinny: While Union Pines, Triton and Harnett Central vye for top honors in the Carolina Pines 6A, this game (for now, at least) will determine which team is at the bottom.
South Johnston isn’t exactly lighting the world ablaze this season, but Southern Lee has struggled even more. The Cavaliers are averaging 6.5 points a night while allowing exactly 50. Not a recipe for success.
The Trojans have been on the business end of a couple of blowouts, too, but with the youth movement well underway at the skill positions, there is a little more light at the end of the tunnel for South Johnston.
A word of caution: West Johnston lost to Southern Lee in similar circumstances last year. You still have to show up and play the game.
Prediction: South Johnston 42, Southern Lee 21
North Johnston at Washington
Records: North Johnston 1-5, 0-2 Three Rivers 4A; Washington 0-5, 0-1 TR 4A
Last Week: North Johnston lost a cat fight with North Pitt, 26-14, while Washington fell to West Craven, 36-8.
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: Washington -21.5
Skinny: Want to know why winless Washington is a three-touchdown favorite over North Johnston? The 22-5 record for the Pam Pack’s opponents, which include undefeated Croatan and Rose, tells the tale. Aside from a 32-31 loss at Farmville Central to start the season, the Pack hasn’t been all that competitive against that tough opposition, losing by 38, 16, 38 and 28 points in the weeks since the opener.
North Johnston hasn’t been trending the right way, either. Since the win over Beddingfield in the opener, the Panthers have lost by 39, 26, 55, 27 and 12. I guess the way to look at this is that each team will be facing one of the weaker opponents its seen so far this year.
Someone is going to nab a league win and climb off the bottom of the standings. The question is who?
North Johnston’s inconsistency, coupled with a 70-plus mile bus ride, has me leaning toward the Pam Pack.
Prediction: Washington 32, North Johnston 28
Princeton at Wallace-Rose Hill
Records: Princeton 3-3, 0-1 Swine Valley 2A/3A; Wallace-Rose Hill 3-2, 1-0 Swine Valley 2A/3A
Last Week: Princeton blasted Wake Prep, 64-0, while Wallace-Rose Hill drilled Goldsboro, 65-0
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: Wallace-Rose Hill -19.5
Skinny: It’s back to work in the Swine Valley 2A/3A for Princeton after an impromptu clash with Wake Prep last week. Both teams are coming off blowout wins, and neither is quite having an ideal season — for different reasons. Wallace-Rose Hill has a pair of narrow losses to East Duplin (16-14) and Clinton (7-6), so this explains the almost 20-point spread.
Princeton’s turbulent ride through the season has been well documented, and based on the uneven play of its defense, a 3-3 record is probably a fair reflection of the Bulldogs’ body of work. East Duplin is a common opponent, with Princeton falling to the Panthers, 40-34. The transitive property suggests that Wallace-Rose Hill is probably a few points better than Princeton, and the fact that the Duplin County Bulldogs have owned this series also gives me pause. Those Bulldogs have won four straight in the series in the MaxPreps era, including three playoff wins in 2014, 2021 and 2022.
Y’all know I love me some Princeton, but I just can’t pull the trigger here.
Prediction: Wallace-Rose Hill 42, Princeton 36
American Leadership Academy at Bunn
Records: ALA 1-4, 0-1 Quad County 2A/3A/4A; Bunn 2-3, 0-0 Quad County 2A/3A/4A
Last Week: American Leadership Academy was blanked at home, 48-0, by Wayne Christian, while Bunn thumped Beddingfield, 54-0.
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: Bunn -35.5
Skinny: Last week has to be the low point in the brief history of American Leadership Academy football. That kind of loss at home to a private school can be season wrecking, and I’m curious to see how the Patriots respond.
Bunn isn’t a juggernaut by any stretch of the imagination, but the Wildcats have a better resume than ALA does at this point. I don’t know about this spread, for the reasons just stated. But, after last week, I really don’t have a good read on the Patriots, either.
Prediction: Bunn 42, ALA 14