Last week, while we were watching Cleveland’s playoff win over Jordan, I kept an eye on the score of the Rolesville/Richmond County game.
Every time I refreshed the feed, Rolesville had scored again. A 22-0 first quarter morphed into a 36-0 lead at the half, and by the time we were starting the fourth quarter on Polenta Road, Rolesville was home and dry with a 44-6 pasting of a pretty good Raider team.
Believing as I do in the transitive property, this was an alarming development. You see, Richmond handled Clayton pretty easily, and we know how the Cleveland/Clayton game went. So, I was worried.
Then, I started researching this week’s game. It didn’t make me feel any better.
The scene: No. 1 Cleveland (13-0) entertains No. 5 Rolesville (12-1) in the 4A East semifinal Friday night at 7:30. The winner faces the victor of No. 2 Cardinal Gibbons (11-1) and No. 3 Hoggard (12-1) next week in the East final. The highest remaining seed will host.
Massey Ratings: Rolesville -21.5
Media watch: Last last week, much of Johnston County’s media scrum will converge on John Jacobs Stadium. We’ll be there for the JoCo Sports Game of the Week, presented by ChiroDuo Mobile Chiropractic. JOCO Radio will also be on hand, as will our friends from Curtis Media (102.3 FM).
How they got here: As previously mentioned, Rolesville thumped Richmond County, 44-6, while Cleveland took down Jordan, 48-28.
The Rams we don’t know: Rolesville is averaging 49.2 points per game against a pretty good schedule. Its lone loss is a 35-20 setback against Grimsley, which is unbeaten and perched atop everyone’s power rankings.
Quarterback Braden Atkinson signed with Mercer this week (as did one of his linemen, Gavin Marks), and is putting up some eye popping numbers, highlighted by 3,093 yards and 42 touchdowns against only three interceptions. Rolesville can run the ball, but often choses not too. Last week, for example, the Rams rushed the ball 10 times for just 19 yards while Atkinson threw for 299 and four scores.
Let’s have a look:
On defense, Rolesville is allowing 10.6 points per contest. Defensive end Jayden Fry is heading to Boston College while junior Zavion Griffin-Haynes received an offer from Notre Dame this week.
Because so many of their games aren’t close, the individual stats don’t jump out. But this is an athletic, talented bunch.
Interestingly enough, this is a unit that has only forced 16 turnovers all season.
The Rams we know: Cleveland is averaging 37.9 points per night against a similarly rated schedule (Simmons: Cleveland 41, Rolesville 25).
Jackson Byrd signed his NLI with East Tennessee State, so he and Atkinson will both be playing in the Southern Conference next fall. Byrd has 3,502 yards, 38 touchdowns and eight interceptions on the year. He’s more of a dual threat than his counterpart, with 639 rushing yards and 13 more scores.
Like Rolesville, Cleveland can run the ball. They try a little harder to be balanced, paced by Kalen Ferrell’s 936 yards and eight touchdowns.
The wealth of receiving options continues to stand out for the Rams, as you’ll see below:
The defensive stats are really where these two teams separate. Because Cleveland’s games are a little closer (it’s allowing 19.5 points per game), the starters play longer and produce more individual numbers.
What’s jarring are the negative plays. Cleveland has 51 sacks and 199 tackles for loss, compared to 13 and 58 for Rolesville, respectively. Some of that is game script, but most of it is philosophy. Cleveland likes to bring pressure and force the action a bit, while the stats suggest that Rolesville is much more focused on stopping the run.
Seriously, Sawyer Lowe is a tackling machine. And his brother is rocketing up those charts, too. The Rams defense will give up some big plays, but as we saw last week with back-to-back defensive scores, they’ll make some, too.
When Rolesville has the ball: Atkinson makes Rolesville go. He has passed for at least 148 yards in every game this season. And since he’s a guy that completes almost 72 percent of his passes but doesn’t run well (-23 yards on the season), getting him off his spot will be the key to slowing down these Rams.
Flash back to the Grimsley game, and note that the Whirlies recorded eight sacks and 10 hurries on Atkinson, and the result was a 13-of-29 night to get his 228 yards. It’s that kind of inefficiency that Cleveland will be trying to create.
The likely scenario? Rolesville hits a few big plays, but Cleveland gets close enough to Atkinson to break his rhythm on a few occasions.
When Cleveland has the ball: Like Atkinson for Rolesville, Byrd is the straw that stirs Cleveland’s drink. His season low for passing yards is 178, but his rushing totals vary from minus four to 121. Some teams (Garner, Fuquay-Varina and Clayton) seemed content to let Byrd stand back there and throw it — and not let him improvise with his legs.
The results were favorable for Cleveland in those games, as Byrd threw for 343, 351 and 277 yards with a combined 13 touchdowns in those three wins. So, since Rolesville has talented edge rushers and (based on the video I’ve seen) doesn’t need to blitz much, I think we can expect this sort of plan.
The X-factor: Weather. It’s projected to be around 27 degrees for kickoff. As a guy who’s likely sitting outside, that was a sad sentence to type.
The skinny: There’s no doubt that Rolesville has faced tougher competition than Cleveland, but a 21-point Massey number seems really high. That said, this will be the best team Cleveland has seen this season. And it will take one of its best games to date to escape with a win.