Week 10? Wow. Time does fly, doesn’t it?
Let’s start by acknowledging the fact that, of the nine public school football playing schools in Johnston County, seven have a winning record.
Not too shabby from an area that sometimes toils in the shadow of its neighbors.
game of the week
Sometimes, when I make a schedule in July, I get lucky. This is one of those times.
The JoCo Sports Game of the Week, powered by ChiroDuo Mobile Chiropractic, heads to North Johnston this week for a pivotal game in the Neuse 6 against Eastern Wayne. How pivotal? Glad you asked.
The winner of this game assures itself at least a share of the conference title. An Eastern Wayne win would mean an outright title for the Warriors, since it would have a one-game lead and the tiebreaker on its closest rivals.
A North Johnston win (and a Princeton win at home against Beddingfield) would set up a high-stakes clash next week in Princeton between North and the Bulldogs with all sorts of title and playoff ramifications.
But let’s get through this week first, shall we?
The Massey Ratings number jumps off the page with EW staked as a 27.5-point favorite. I don’t quite get that one. Sure, Eastern Wayne’s schedule is a little tougher, and when we apply the transitive property, we see that the Warriors handled Beddingfield far more easily than the Panthers did.
And, in the MaxPreps era (2004-present), Eastern Wayne is 3-0 against North, including a 12-0 decision last season in Goldsboro.
But North, I think, is a little underrated by the Index. The Panthers figured some things out in the first few games of the Kyle Schenk era, and with five straight wins under their belts, this is a different team than it was in early September.
I’d put the number closer to 13, if it were the Capps Index, with the Panthers being more than capable of celebrating Senior Night with a win.
As Schenk said to me in our pregame chat this week, it will take North’s best game to date to make that happen.
Pregame gets underway at 6:40, and you can listen live and for free right here.
speaking of the neuse 6
Princeton is certainly Johnston County’s Jekyll and Hyde team for the 2024 season. Just run through the schedule: Loss, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, win.
The last two weeks have featured a surprisingly tough 38-30 win over winless Goldsboro and a 61-24 triumph over equally winless Spring Creek.
It’s hard to be excited about that, but what is interesting is that bit we outlined a few paragraphs ago about the Bulldogs still being alive for a conference title.
A 6-4 season in a vacuum would be pretty disappointing in a place accustomed to much more success, but a 6-4 record that came with a share of the league title would feel a lot better.
Standing in the way of that scenario is Beddingfield. The Bruins have struggled this season, but the computers have noted Princeton’s inconsistency as well, making the Bulldogs only a 19.5-point favorite.
I think that sounds about right. The Bulldogs are giving up 25.6 points per game, so it’s not hard to imagine a 40-something to 20-something result.
Our friends at Curtis Media have this one on 102.3 FM, and that pregame is also at 6:40.
playing out the string?
While C.B. Aycock has sucked all the drama out of the Quad County 3A race with its spotless 8-0 record, we’ve still got some stuff to sort out.
Go ahead and write a “1” next to Aycock, since it isn’t likely to lose to Smithfield-Selma or Southern Wayne in the last two weeks of the season. And even if that did happen, the Falcons would still win all the tiebreakers with the two-loss teams.
Let’s look at the rest of the story.
South Johnston at East Wake — Last year, three Quad County 3A teams made the postseason, and only the tiebreaker rule between East Wake and West Johnston kept it from being four.
Our friends at High School OT ($) currently project four teams in (Aycock, Fike, South and West) with Hunt just missing out. Needless to say, winning is paramount for these teams right behind Aycock in the standings.
The Trojans are a 1.5-point favorite at East Wake, according to the computers, and this is a tricky spot for them. The Warriors might be 3-5, but have played a rugged schedule, and are coming off an impressive 24-17 win against Fike.
I’d cite the transitive property here, but Fike blanked South, 24-0, without its starting QB, so I’m throwing that one out.
It will be interesting to see how last week’s emotional triple-overtime win over Hunt affects the Trojans, and this is a game that really could go either way.
West Johnston at Hunt — The Wildcats were the latest Quad County team to run into Aycock last week, but have an extra day to prepare for another trip to Wilson to face Hunt.
The Warriors are the other team with some emotional baggage to carry after the aforementioned overtime thriller, but the computers, being cold and unfeeling, spit out Hunt -16.5 as its number.
It’s hard to figure Hunt. It beats the teams it should and loses to the teams with better records. Meanwhile, West is in the projected field, but only just, and could really use a bounce-back performance in this one.
Rushing defense has been an issue for Hunt at times this season, and West will seek to exploit that on Friday. I’d make the Warriors a favorite, but I’m not feeling 17 points. I think it’s a touchdown game either way.
Smithfield-Selma at C.B. Aycock — The Spartans snapped an 18-game losing streak last week, and have to be on top of the world. So, the fact that the Falcons are a 35.5-point favorite won’t get them down.
This one might be tough, but last week’s joy should remain.
the patriot way
I had to cite the section in the NCHSAA Handbook for someone the other day, asking about American Leadership Academy’s playoff hopes.
The short answer is, for this season as an independent, it doesn’t have any. With next year’s eight-classification realignment on the horizon, however, the Patriots will have a conference home, and thus, a pathway into team playoff brackets.
Until then, ALA visits Wake Prep this week, and is a 31.5-point favorite. A 7-1 record on Saturday morning seems likely.
what could be greater?
The Greater Neuse looks pretty good if you have a Johnston County perspective.
All roads lead to a showdown between two unbeatens, Clayton and Cleveland, that will decide the Greater Neuse River 4A title — and a pretty high seed in the 4A playoffs.
Cleveland at Garner — Of course, Garner can wreck all of that with a win at home against Cleveland this week. The Trojans are having a solid campaign in their own right, but the Massey number still reads 30.5 in favor of the Rams.
I’d expect Cleveland to roll here, but it came out flatter than two-day old Coke against Southeast Raleigh last week. I get the feeling the Rams will be a little more focused this time around, setting the stage for next week’s showdown.
Our friends at JOCO Radio will have the call.
Willow Spring at Clayton — While Cleveland was scuffling with Southeast Raleigh last time out, Clayton was laying down a 49-0 marker against Corinth Holders.
The Comets entertain Willow Spring as a 40.5-point favorite, and aside from the fact that this is a clear look-ahead spot for the Comets, all signs point to a comfortable Comet win.
Our pals at CRN, as always, will be on the call. Pregame begins at 6:30.
Corinth Holders at Southeast Raleigh — The feel-good story of the year in Johnston County football took a dark turn last week with the heavy loss at Clayton. But the latest High School OT projections have Corinth Holders solidly in the 4A field.
Staying there might be tricky with a road date with Southeast Raleigh this week. The Bulldogs went blow for blow with Cleveland last week (and seven points of that 10-point margin happened in the last 45 seconds).
The computers noticed, picking SER as a 14.5-point favorite. The Pirates’ lone losses have come against the best two teams on its schedule, but this will be a tough win to get on the road.
They’ve been surprising us all season, though, so it would be foolish to count the Pirates out.