Anyone who spends time in this space knows that I’m not an alarmist. That being said, it’s getting late early for a few of our Johnston County football teams.
Our pal Nick Stevens over at VarsityNC has his playoff projections out, and nobody’s using the words “doom and gloom” yet, but we all know how to spell them.
Let’s break it down, through the lens of some Week 6 prep:
DEFCON 1
Broughton at Corinth Holders
Records: Broughton 3-1, 1-0 Cap 8A; Corinth Holders 1-3, 0-1
Last Week: Broughton clipped Enloe, 41-24, while Corinth Holders fell to Rolesville, 48-7
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: Corinth Holders -.5
Skinny: Last year is last year, but Broughton’s 38-0 win in that game probably kept the Pirates out of the playoffs. And based on what the latest bubble watch over at VarsityNC says, things are trending that way again. Corinth Holders, coming off a humbling loss to Rolesville, are currently the last team projected in the 8A field.
The South Garner win a couple of weeks back was huge, and truth be told, the Pirates could use another signature win in league play. The Capitals don’t care about any of that, as they bring a three-game winning streak to Wendell. They’re balanced offensively, throwing for a little more than 240 yards a night while rushing for more than 160 behind workhorse Luke Pagan (471 yards, 8 TD).
The defense has been a little more up and down, as evidenced by a shutout against Sanderson and three other outings of allowing at least 24 points.
It’s harder to read Corinth Holders. Are they the team that bent, but didn’t break against South Garner? Or the team that went toe-to-toe with a decent North Brunswick squad? The computers love them for those near misses, I guess.
I think they’re the team that has yet to score more than 13 points in a game this season. I also think it will likely take 30 to win this one.
Prediction: Broughton 28, Corinth Holders 21
Lee County at West Johnston
Records: Lee County 0-4, 0-1 Carolina Pines 6A, West Johnston 1-3, 0-1
Last Week: Lee County fell at Triton, 37-34, while West Johnston lost at Union Pines, 35-0.
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: Lee County -3.5
Skinny: At the risk of being too flippant, we have the classic moveable object versus the stoppable force matchup this week. Someone is leaving McGee’s Crossroads feeling much better about its 2026 season.
The 6A bubble has both of these teams near or on it, with Lee County in at 37 and West Johnston six spots later in a field of 48. So, a win moves one team up on this list, and serves as one of those pesky conference tiebreakers that have burned West (and South) in recent years.
The computer loves Lee County’s recent near-miss against unbeaten Triton, which explains the spread. But truthfully, neither of these teams have really hit any kind of stride this season. It took overtime for the Wildcats to beat Smithfield-Selma and have been shutout in back-to-back weeks.
Before last week, Lee County was outscored by Hunt, Apex Friendship and Overhills, 134-18. The Yellow Jackets won this meeting, 10-7, last fall, and all signs point to another tight contest this time around.
The difference could be the West Johnston rushing attack. Triton rushed for 375 yards on 49 carries last week, and in flashes, West Johnston has been able to get that part of its offense going.
This could be a race to 14 points, and because it’s at home, I’ll lean westward.
Prediction: West Johnston 17, Lee County 14
South Johnston at Union Pines
Records: South Johnston 1-3, 0-1 Carolina Pines 6A; Union Pines 3-1, 1-0
Last Week: South Johnston lost a cricket test to Harnett Central, 18-13, while Union Pines blanked West Johnston, 35-0.
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: Union Pines -30.5
Skinny: If losing to Harnett Central last week wasn’t bad enough for South Johnston, the weather was crap, some of the stadium lights didn’t work and it took until Tuesday afternoon to get it finished. That’s a rather large disruption to the normal game prep against what many consider to be the cream of the Carolina Pines 6A.
As mentioned here previously, Union Pines is very good. So, you’d like all the preparation you can get. Instead, it’s a short week on the road against a quality opponent. OK then.
The computers don’t weigh any of that, and the spread is still 30.5. I like the South Johnston defense enough to suggest that it could be closer than that, but every metric you can find points hard toward Cameron.
Bright spots for the Trojans include the recent strong play from some of their very young skill players, but this is a tall, tall order. They’re also 30th in this week’s playoff projections, which means that we’ll probably be having a more serious conversation about South’s playoff hopes next week.
Prediction: Union Pines 35, South Johnston 14
Wayne Christian at American Leadership Academy
Records: Wayne Christian 4-1, American Leadership Academy 1-3, 0-1 Quad County 2A/3A/4A
Last Week: Wayne Christian outargued South Wake Christian on Monday, 42-0, while ALA fell on Monday to East Carteret, 24-12.
Media Watch: Nope
Massey Ratings line: Wayne Christian -27.5
Skinny: It’s almost impossible to get a good read on this one, as Wayne Christian is a private school. What we do know is that their 4-1 record has come at the expense of teams with a 5-18 overall record. And these are private school teams, and on average, public school teams are bigger, deeper and more athletic.
The last time Wayne Christian faced a public school team of a similar profile — and yes, charter schools are public — was Washington County last fall, and the Lions fells short.
I typed all of that to say that we can probably throw out the Massey number here, since it’s trying to compare the football equivalent of apples and oranges. ALA is a flawed team, as we saw last week against previously winless East Carteret. But the Patriots have enough talent and size to be a tricky matchup for the Lions.
The one thing that ALA consistently does well is run the ball. And that might actually be enough here. It’s a hunch, but…
Prediction: American Leadership Academy 35, Wayne Christian 27
North Pitt at North Johnston
Records: North Pitt 1-4, 0-1 Three Rivers 4A, North Johnston 1-4, 0-1
Last Week: North Pitt was on the wrong end of a 49-12 scoreline against West Craven, while North Johnston fell at Eastern Wayne, 27-0.
Media Watch: NFHS($)
Massey Ratings line: North Pitt -20.5
Skinny: Not all 1-4 records are created equal, but these two are pretty close. Both schools have a win over a team that’s struggling (Ayden-Grifton for North Pitt and Beddingfield for North Johnston). Both have four losses against teams near or above .500. And neither finds the end zone with the sort of regularity that makes folks in the bleachers happy.
North Pitt has scored 52 points this season, while the Panthers have put 70 on the board, with 40 of those coming in that opening win against Beddingfield. Both of these teams are perched on the bubble, if that’s a cogent simile. North Pitt is 45th while North Johnston is two spots lower in another field of 48.
I don’t believe that North Pitt is 20 points better than most NCHSAA teams in this moment, but North Johnston’s recent form doesn’t exactly thrill me, either.
North Pitt has also won six straight games in this series. I’d like to call another upset here, but North Johnston is a little outside my circle of trust right now.
Prediction: North Pitt 21, North Johnston 13
Smithfield-Selma at Clayton
Records: Smithfield-Selma 0-5, 0-1 Greater Neuse River 7A; Clayton 5-0, 1-0
Last Week: Smithfield-Selma fell at South Garner, 36-0, while Clayton tamed Fuquay-Varina, 46-7.
Media Watch: NFHS($), CRN and WARZ (maybe)
Massey Ratings line: Clayton -45.5
Skinny: Obviously, Clayton isn’t on the DEFCON 1 list. It’s on the let’s try to win every game we play list, which when you think about it, is the one all teams should strive for.
I don’t need brother Nick’s excellent bracket lab tools to tell me that the Spartans’ season is on life support. Back-to-back shutout losses have SSS sitting at 0-5, with games against Clayton, Southeast Raleigh and Cleveland still remaining. In the most optimistic future I can fathom, the Spartans might find a way to trip Garner and/or Fuquay-Varina — and even that wouldn’t be enough to book a game in November.
With a line pushing 50, we don’t need to show the prediction work here, do we?
Prediction: Clayton 56, Smithfield-Selma 0
Keep grinding
Princeton at Wake Prep
Records: Princeton 2-3, 0-1 Swine Valley 2A/3A, Wake Prep 4-1, 1-0 Quad County 2A/3A/4A
Last Week: Princeton lost at home to Midway, 52-46, while Wake Prep drilled North Edgecombe, 47-6.
Media Watch: Hudl($)
Massey Ratings line: Princeton -9.5
Skinny: Once upon a time, this was a Swine Valley league game between Princeton and Spring Creek. But, with the latter dropping football this season due to low numbers, an adjustment was made.
Now, on the back of a come-from-ahead loss to unbeaten Midway, Princeton takes a break from conference play to be the second Johnston County team to visit Wake Prep this season.
The Guardians are 4-1, without what one might call a quality win, while Princeton is 2-3 against what looks to be a pretty stout schedule. I sprung for the $9 to watch Wake Prep and ALA, and while the Guardians had a little too much steam for the Patriots, this 9.5-point spread is a little light for my taste.
I usually spend a paragraph or two lamenting the Bulldog defense, but this week, I’m just going to post Teo McPhatter’s video game-like numbers:
Just absurd production.
Prediction: Princeton 42, Wake Prep 28
South Garner at Cleveland
Records: South Garner 3-2, 1-0 Greater Neuse River 7A, Cleveland 4-0
Last Week: South Garner toppled Smithfield-Selma, 36-0, while Cleveland enjoyed a bye week.
Media Watch: NFHS($) and JOCORadio
Massey Ratings line: Cleveland -35.5
Skinny: An optimist would say that South Garner is four points away from being a 5-0 team, with a pair of one-point losses on the ledger. A realist would point out that one of those losses was to Corinth Holders, while the other was to 4-0 Hunt.
Aside from a 10-minute stretch of absolute madness in the opener against Pinecrest, it has been pretty rosy on Polenta Road for first-year coach Codi Vick. The defense, after that opener, has allowed 35 points in three games, with many of those coming when the results were no longer in doubt.
The offense has looked more Cleveland-like than the one we saw down the stretch last season. We’ve seen 41, 43, 36 and 50 points to go along with a pile of yards for Owen Hulbert (68-of-106, 799 yards, 17 total touchdowns) and Kaleb Ferrell (54 rushes, 339 yards). The biggest development for me is the play of Jamil Johnson, who caught all of six balls for 105 yards as a sophomore. This year, he’s already produced 24 catches for 253 yards and five scores, which are all team highs.
South Garner will come into town looking for a marquee win. They might not like what they find instead.
Prediction: Cleveland 34, South Garner 7