It can’t really be Week 6, can it? The calendar says yes, and who am I to argue with a 16th century pope?
Some divine intervention might help this week, as seven of our Johnston County schools are coming off a loss. Only Clayton emerged victorious, while Cleveland enjoyed a well-timed bye. (When episode six of the podcast is done, you can hear how the Rams spent it).
This week, we’ve got some Thursday night football (thanks to some possible weather concerns and, in the case of South Johnston, Mule Days). In fact, this might be a good time to say that the schedule is fluid, and I’ll update it here as I hear about any changes:
Week 6 schedule
Thursday
Union Pines at South Johnston, 7 p.m.
Cleveland at South Garner, 7 p.m.
Clayton at Smithfield-Selma, 7 p.m.
Friday
North Johnston at North Pitt, 7 p.m.
American Leadership Academy at Jordan-Matthews, 7 p.m.
West Johnston at Lee County, 7 p.m.
Corinth Holders at Broughton, 7 p.m.
Princeton is off this week
union Pines at South Johnston
Records: Union Pines 3-1, 1-0; South Johnston 2-2, 0-1
Last time out: Union Pines thumped West Johnston, 38-6, while South Johnston fell at Harnett Central, 28-24.
Massey Rating spread: Union Pines -27.5
Media watch: NFHS ($)
Breakdown: One of Bill Parcells’ more famous sayings is that you are what your record says you are. Well, South Johnston’s mark says “average,” but the truth is, the Trojans could have easily won or lost every one of its games. Each has been played inside a five-point window, with alternating wins and losses of five, three, two and four points, respectively.
Well, if you believe the computer, that might change this week. Union Pines’ only blemish is a five-point loss to county rival Pinecrest, and the Vikings have won their other three games by 22, 27 and 32 points, respectively.
They get it done with a solid defense, a strong running game (Adrian Colon leads with 323 yards, 3 TD) and just enough passing to keep folks honest (Ian Hicks has 520 passing yards and 5 TD).
Oddly enough, that’s the formula South Johnston would like to use. It’s been effective at times this season, but inconsistency on offense, and last week, on special teams, has been an issue.
Talent-wise, these teams aren’t that far apart. But results have been another story.
Prediction: Union Pines 24, South Johnston 21
cleveland at south garner
Records: Cleveland 4-0, South Garner 3-2, 1-0
Last time out: Cleveland had a bye, while South Garner dropped Smithfield-Selma, 49-0
Massey Rating spread: Cleveland -35.5
Media watch: NFHS ($)
Breakdown: Keeping with the Parcells analogy, South Garner’s record says it’s OK. Manic might be a better word.
A 20-0 season opening shutout over North was followed by a 69-point explosion against Southern Lee. The Titans then dropped two straight at Corinth Holders and Hunt in listless fashion before bouncing back last week.
This is a week where the Titans may bounce the other way. Cleveland has started the year with a flourish, winning its games by an average tally of about 53-14. Owen Hulbert has been solid (786 yards passing, 69.3 completion percentage, 12 TD, 2 INT), the running game has been efficient and the defense has been excellent as well.
Prediction: Cleveland 45, South Garner 14
clayton at smithfield-Selma
Records: Clayton 4-1, 1-0; Smithfield-Selma 1-4, 0-1
Last time out: Clayton tamed Fuquay-Varina, 53-10 while SSS was on the wrong end of a 49-0 decision against South Garner
Massey Rating spread: Clayton -42.5
Breakdown: Since its loss down in Wilmington to Hoggard a couple of week ago, Clayton has been playing angry. The Comets have been in Hulk mode the last two weeks, posting back-to-back thrashings of West Johnston and Fuquay-Varina.
Offensively, Aiden Smalls has combined for 1,059 yards of total offense and 16 total touchdowns. My favorite stat for the Comets (and shoutout to Coach Chadwick for the spreadsheet) is the fact that they’re averaging eight yards per carry. That’s always a stat worth watching.
The win over Southern Wayne on Sept. 12 was a bright spot for the Spartans, but the grueling slog through Greater Neuse River 7A play has begun, and there are no more soft opponents coming down the pike.
Prediction: Clayton 45, Smithfield-Selma 0
North Johnston at north pitt
Records: North Johnston 3-2, 0-1; North Pitt 1-4, 0-1
Last time out: North Johnston fell at home to Eastern Wayne, 32-20, while North Pitt dropped a heartbreaker, 27-26, at West Craven
Massey Rating spread: North Pitt -25.5
Media watch: NFHS ($)
Breakdown: OK, North Pitt’s schedule has been tough, but this is a weird Massey number for me. The Pitt County-based Panthers have dropped four in a row since a season-opening win against Martin County, but those teams are a combined 14-6 overall.
North Johnston, on the other hand, has lost two games on the trot to Princeton and Eastern Wayne. But North has been prolific on offense in all of their games, giving it more than a puncher’s chance here.
Prediction: North Pitt 35, North Johnston 32
american leadership academy at jordan-matthews
Records: American Leadership Academy 3-2; Jordan-Matthews 4-1
Last time out: ALA fell on the road to East Carteret, 41-21, while the Jets were grounded against Providence Grove, 47-8.
Massey Rating spread: American Leadership Academy -12.5
Media watch: NFHS ($) — maybe
Breakdown: Remember last week when I slid closer to the edge of the Patriot bandwagon? I’m now hanging off the side of it. That being said, this might not be the week to jump completely off.
Jordan-Matthews record says it’s good, right? Those four wins have come against folks with a combined record of 2-17. That explains why the Massey computer hates the Jets so much.
I was going to pick Jordan-Matthews in this spot, but I can’t get past that. Yuck.
Prediction: American Leadership Academy 42, Jordan-Matthews 28
west johnston at lee county
Records: West Johnston 1-3, 0-1; Lee County 2-2, 1-0
Last time out: West Johnston fell to Union Pines, 38-6, while Lee County tripped up Triton, 20-7.
Massey Rating spread: Lee County -22.5
Media watch: NFHS ($)
Breakdown: West Johnston’s offense is still very much a work in progress, a fact that showed up again last week against Union Pines. Lee County has allowed a single touchdown in the last two weeks in wins over Overhills and Triton, and that’s helped the Yellow Jackets turn around an 0-2 start.
I’m like Missouri when it comes to the Wildcats right now. A “show me” state, if you will.
Prediction: Lee County 27, West Johnston 14
corinth holders at broughton
Records: Corinth Holders 2-2, 0-1; Broughton 2-2, 0-1
Last time out: Corinth Holders ran into a buzzsaw, 53-0, against Rolesville, while Broughton fell short against Enloe, 20-14.
Massey Rating spread: Broughton -.5
Media watch: Curtis Media 102.3 FM, jocofootball.com and NFHS ($)
Breakdown: A virtual pick’em wraps up the previews as Corinth Holders visits Broughton. It goes without saying that this is an important game, and both teams will certainly be up for it.
The Pirates won this encounter by a stunning 39-0 scoreline last year, but this one figures to be a bit tighter. Both teams have beaten teams they should have, and lost to teams that were more talented on paper.
It’s hard to separate these teams, so I’m inclined to go with the vibe — and the fact that Corinth Holders boatraced the Captials a year ago.
Prediction: Corinth Holders 29, Broughton 28