As we plow deeper into November, the games get tougher and stakes get higher for our Johnston County contingent.
Round two looms this week, and three of the five remaining schools are road underdogs against teams that had first-round byes.
As Han Solo said to C3PO, “never tell me the odds.” Let’s see if the Force will be with our local teams this week:
New Hanover at Clayton
Records: New Hanover 6-5; Clayton 8-2
Last week: New Hanover scratched its way past Heritage, 28-14, while Clayton spent the bye week listening to our podcast. Maybe.
Massey Rating spread: Clayton -36.5
Media Watch: Hudl, CRN, 102.3 FM and jocofootball.com
Breakdown: With a bye week to come down from the emotional high that came with that 20-3 win over Cleveland back on Halloween, the Comets gear up to entertain New Hanover in round two of the 7A East playoffs.
The Wildcats defended their home turf against Heritage last week, but might find this particular mountain to be a bit taller. They can run the ball a bit behind Javonie Webb (783 yards, 6 TD) and Tony Clark-Nelson (641, 9 TD), and their quarterback Tanahri Johnston is a dual threat (1,769 total yards, 14 total TD).
Defensively, New Hanover has scuffled at times. It’s allowing 22.3 points per night, albeit against a decent schedule. For you transitive property fans out there, the Wildcats lost to New Bern, 32-7, on Aug. 22. Cleveland, of course, beat the Bears, 46-6, three weeks later.
It’s not a straight line, but it’s one worth drawing.
One wonders if the week off was also good for the health of some of the Clayton skill position players who were hobbled or unavailable against Cleveland? I suspect it was.
Prediction: Clayton 35, New Hanover 7
south garner at cleveland
Records: South Garner 5-6; Cleveland 9-1
Last week: South Garner break the brakes off South Central, 62-14, while Cleveland enjoyed a bye week.
Massey Rating spread: Cleveland -36.5
Media Watch: NFHS ($) and JOCOradio.com
Breakdown: I can read the Massey number, but this game fascinates me. Mainly because I have no idea how the Rams will respond to that loss at Clayton a couple of weeks ago.
The last time Cleveland took the field immediately after a loss was Sept. 27, 2019. The week before, the Rams fell to Cardinal Gibbons, 36-0, and then hit the road the following week to face Corinth Holders. Cleveland won that game, 56-23, and every game after until a 34-27 loss at Lee County on Black Friday (I called that game on 102.3 FM with my pal, Patrick Johnson).
So, what happens this time against a team from its conference that it has already beaten this season (42-28)? Alijah Clark (333 yards, 5 TD) and Chase Hardy (218 yards, 3 TD) ran absolutely wild last week, and the pair combined for a more modest, but still effective 135 yards and a score in their regular-season meeting.
That game back in September turned into a bit of a track meet, and Cleveland led 35-14 after three quarters before the Titans remembered they were in a game.
South Garner is talented. Defensive end Ebenezer Ewetade is committed to Notre Dame and lineman Ekene Ogboko is heading to Georgia, and as Clayton head coach Scott Chadwick pointed out on the podcast last week, this is from a team that finished fifth in the Greater Neuse River 7A.
Still, with a week off to process things — and a week to prepare for South Garner (since it was a massive favorite in round one) — I’m expecting a rebound game from the Rams.
Prediction: Cleveland 35, South Garner 14
South johnston at seventy-first
Records: South Johnston 8-3; Seventy-First 8-2
Last week: South Johnston defanged Vance County, 47-7, while Seventy-First enjoyed a bye
Massey Rating spread: Seventy-First -35.5
Media Watch: NFHS ($) and 94.3 FM (Fayetteville)
Breakdown: Coach Duran McLaurin has the Falcons cooking on Raeford Road down in Fayetteville. They’ve reached the state title game two years running, and have piled up a 52-5 record in the past four seasons.
The Massey number says what it says, but on paper, these Falcons don’t look as stout as they did during the last three seasons. Sure, one of the losses was a forfeit due to an eligibility issue, but against a decent schedule, Seventy-First is outscoring foes by roughly a 36-14 margin this season. Last year’s numbers, by comparison, were about 43-8.
Still, the Falcons are a dangerous offensive team. Jayson Franklin (1,295 yards, 16 TD) and Shon Pone (1,018 yards, 14 TD) are each averaging north of 10 yards per carry, and as a team, the Falcons gain 9.3 yards every time a running play happens. Maybe that’s why quarterback Rmauni Watson has thrown only 93 passes this year to compile his 925 yards and 9 TD (with no INT)?
This is a strength-on-strength game, as the Trojan defense has been one of the area’s best this season. They’re giving up just under 11 points a night and about 71 rushing yards a game. In fact, last week Vance County tallied 136 yards on the ground, and it was the most that South has allowed all season.
Seventy-First is the favorite, and it should be. But this might not be the walk in the park everyone is expecting. It will take a balanced offensive attack to score enough points to stay in this one, though.
Prediction: Seventy-First 26, South Johnston 14
North Johnston at east duplin
Records: North Johnston 6-5; East Duplin 8-2
Last week: North Johnston survived an upset bid from Washington, 42-35, while East Duplin had a first-round bye
Massey Rating spread: East Duplin -35.5
Media Watch: NFHS ($)
Breakdown: Transitive property believers have a lot to chew on in this Panther party. The Panthers of East Duplin knocked off Princeton, 42-20, on Aug. 29 and two weeks later, the North Johnston Panthers lost to the Bulldogs, 48-46.
So, that explains 21 of the 35 points in the Massey number. Recent form accounts for the other 14. Since a 35-24 loss to unbeaten 6A Jacksonville, East Duplin has reeled off five consecutive wins (including handing 3A Pender its lone loss of the season).
North Johnston, on the other hand, closed the season with five losses in its last eight games and needed a miracle pick six (I still can’t figure out what Washington was hoping to achieve there with a passing play) to reach this point.
Any team with an athlete like Kaleb Pone, the miracle maker himself, playing quarterback has a chance. But he’s going to need to channel the game of his life for this one to stay competitive. He’ll need help from his defense, too.
It’s not an impossible task, but it’s a tough one.
Prediction: East Duplin 42, North Johnston 20
princeton at pasquotank county
Records: Princeton 7-4; Pasquotank County 8-2
Last week: Princeton outgunned Beddingfield, 54-18, while Pasquotank County enjoyed a week off in Elizabeth City.
Massey Rating spread: Pasquotank -13.5
Media Watch: N/A
Breakdown: So, what happens when the unstoppable force meets the immovable object? We’re going to see on Friday when the Princeton offense, averaging just a shade over 41 points a game runs into the Pasquotank County defense that’s giving up just a hair more than 10.
The PCHS Panthers play their games in a phone booth. Six of their games, including losses to Hertford County and old our friend John Wheeler’s Martin County, have been fewer than two possessions either way.
They run the ball well with Jayon Harris (792 yards, 13 TD) and Tyshawn Spencer (711 yards, 7 TD) and play good defense, which is a time-tested method of winning a bunch of football games.
Another way to win in the prep realm is to have an all-world athlete, which Princeton does in Teo McPhatter. The super sophomore has rushed for 2,208 yards and 33 touchdowns this season, in addition to passing for 261 yards and seven more scores. He’s also the fifth-leading tackler with 35 and leads the team with five interceptions.
He might mix the Gatorade, too, but I can’t confirm that.
Despite his best efforts, the Bulldogs are pretty ordinary on defense, and that’s a fact that may show up here. The metrics like the Panthers, but I’m feeling like a vibe guy in this one.
Prediction: Princeton 30, Pasquotank County 28