Remember the old Nickelodeon show “Get the Picture?” Well, don’t feel badly if you don’t (it’s from the early 90s). But the premise was that they would display an image, and contestants would try to guess what it was as it slowly came into focus.
That’s what we’re doing, as we try to sort out the various conference races. Some of those pictures are clearer than others, as you’ll see as we break down Week 8 for our local Johnston County football teams.
In an effort to improve our vision, this week we’re including the HighSchool OT playoff projections, which are available to their subscribers. Consider supporting them, as they do amazing work covering prep sports in the state.
Seriously. Prep coverage is dying nationwide. It’s worth paying for.
corinth Holders at athens drive
Records: Corinth Holders 3-3, 1-2 CAP 8A; Athens Drive 0-6, 0-3
Last time out: Corinth Holders sunk Wakefield, 36-0, while Athens Drive was run off the road against Enloe, 50-22.
Massey Rating spread: Corinth Holders -28.5
Media Watch: NFHS ($)
HighSchool OT playoff projection: Corinth Holders, 23rd seed (of 24)
Breakdown: Corinth Holders has had more ups and downs than than a gym full of Crossfit athletes this season, as the Pirates have split six games right down the middle. When they’ve been good, they’ve been very good (wins at North Brunswick and at home against South Garner and Wakefield). When they’ve been bad, well, they’ve been outscored 143-13 in three losses.
Athens Drive, on the other hand, has just been degrees of bad. Very against Leesville Road and Millbrook, plain bad against Cary and Enloe and bad enough against Green Hope and Green Level.
This is a game the Pirates need to push away from the 8A playoff bubble, and all signs point to fair weather and smooth sailing for Coach Carl Smith’s crew.
Prediction: Corinth Holders 28, Athens Drive 7
Garner at cleveland
Records: Garner 5-1, 2-0 Greater Neuse River 7A; Cleveland 6-0, 2-0
Last time out: Garner routed Smithfield-Selma, 71-0, while Cleveland had donut Monday after a 43-0 shutout against Fuquay-Varina
Massey Rating spread: Cleveland -17.5
Media Watch: 102.3 FM, jocofootball.com and JOCORadio.com
HighSchool OT playoff projection: Cleveland, 1 seed (first-round bye)
Breakdown: I’ve been saying all year that Garner and Southeast Raleigh would have a say in the Greater Neuse River 7A race, and Southeast Raleigh spoke up last week against Clayton.
Garner steps to the lectern this week with a chance to spoil the other Johnston County football power’s claim to a conference title that has been its birthright in recent seasons.
The Trojans, sharp as their swords may be, have an uphill task. For starters, Cleveland is 8-3 in this series, dating back to its opening, and have won seven straight, including a narrow 29-28 win in Garner last fall.
Scar tissue aside, Coach Deron Donald’s squad is dangerous, and has a couple of nice wins over Middle Creek and Conley. And knowing him as I do, he’s relishing the underdog role in this one.
I know Scott Riley, too, and he’ll be singing a different tune this week on Polenta Road. He’ll know about the Garner offense, which features quarterback Christian Ormandy (995 yards, 67 percent completions, 9 TD, 4 INT) and a pair of talented backs in Tayden McPhatter (467 yards, 8 TD) and Amir Wallace (441 yards, 4 TD).
He’ll be aware that his defense, which is allowing a shade over 15 points a night, matches up well and that his offense, balanced in its own right with Owen Hulbert and backs Kaleb Ferrell and Porter Bennett, is probably the best unit on the field (averaging 49.2 points a game).
Cleveland is better on paper, but I’m not so sure about that Massey number.
Prediction: Cleveland 31, Garner 21
south garner at clayton
Records: South Garner 3-3, 1-1 Greater Neuse River 7A; Clayton 5-2, 2-1
Last time out: South Garner enjoyed a bye week while Clayton fell at Southeast Raleigh, 22-19
Massey Rating spread: Clayton -31.5
HighSchool OT playoff projection: Clayton, 9th seed
Breakdown: This could go one of two ways. Clayton can come in with its collective head down, thinking of what may have been, and sleepwalk its way through a game it should win comfortably.
Or the Comets can be angry, step out of the locker room with a point to prove and live up to the Massey number (and then some).
It will require some salesmanship from Coach Scott Chadwick and his staff to convince the team (rightly) that the season isn’t over, and a conference title is still there to be won. But I suspect that message will get across, and we’ll see it manifest itself on Friday night.
Prediction: Clayton 42, South Garner 7
southeast raleigh at smithfield-selma
Records: Southeast Raleigh 5-0, 2-1 Greater Neuse River 7A; Smithfield-Selma 1-6, 0-3
Last time out: Southeast Raleigh fought off Clayton, 22-19, while the Spartans were vanquished, 71-0.
Massey Rating spread: Southeast Raleigh -42.5
Media Watch: NFHS ($)
HighSchool OT playoff projection: N/A
Breakdown: There’s an “N/A” next to Smithfield-Selma’s name in our listing of playoff projections, but there isn’t one for Southeast Raleigh. The win over Clayton last week has the Bulldogs squarely in the hunt for a league title, with an important tiebreaker already in the bag.
That good work would be undone by looking past a game, but struggling, SSS squad. Sadly for the home team, I don’t think Southeast Raleigh will fall into that trap.
Prediction: Southeast Raleigh 49, Smithfield-Selma 7
west johnston at harnett central
Records: West Johnston 2-4, 1-2 Carolina Pines 6A; Harnett Central 4-2, 2-1
Last time out: West Johnston pushed past Triton, 16-7, while Harnett Central fell, 28-12, at Union Pines
Massey Rating spread: Harnett Central -7.5
Media Watch: Hudl ($)
HighSchool OT playoff projection: West Johnston, 18th seed
Breakdown: Welcome to the middle of the pack in the Carolina Pines 6A. The road to the upper echelon is wide open, as it the road to ruin. Which way will the Wildcats point the bus after its trip to Angier? Let’s see if we can chart a course.
The question has been the same for Coach Jermaine Harper’s squad all season long: Where are the points coming from? Four different players have thrown at least one pass this season, with the latest being Case Holland , but collectively the quarterbacks have completed 45.6 percent of their throws and have tallied nine interceptions to just three touchdowns.
The running game has been just as inconsistent, with 10 (!) different rushers combining for 439 yards and three yards a carry.
Harnett Central is a lot like water. It finds its own level. A 30-28 win over Smithfield-Selma is the best example of a Trojan team that wins games it should, and loses games to better teams.
The West Johnston defense is absolutely good enough to keep Harnett Central in check. Can that offense, which is scoring less than 10 points a game, find the 20 or so it needs to win this one?
I’m not so sure.
Prediction: Harnett Central 21, West Johnston 17
lee county at south johnston
Records: Lee County 4-2, 3-0 Carolina Pines 6A; South Johnston 3-3, 1-2
Last time out: Lee County stung Western Harnett, 34-6 while South Johnston outdueled Southern Lee, 45-7
Massey Rating spread: Lee County -8.5
Media Watch: NFHS ($)
HighSchool OT playoff projection: South Johnston, 16th seed
Breakdown: Remember that bit about the great middle of the Carolina Pines? South lives there, too. The Trojans pointed their bus in the right direction last week, and like their rivals down the road, South Johnston can go north or south, figuratively.
The parallels with West run deeper, as the Trojan offense has featured three different quarterbacks. Most recently, Kenny Forsythe, was 5-of-6 for 92 yards and a score last week. It won’t matter as much if Holt Langston keeps doing what he did last week, which was post 239 yards and three scores
Lee County doesn’t have a win against a team with an above-.500 record, but it has been pretty good against the run this season. This could be the fifth game this season for South that’s been decided by a single possession.
Call it a hunch…
Prediction: South Johnston 24, Harnett Central 21
north johnston at west craven
Records: North Johnston 4-3, 1-2 Three Rivers 4A; West Craven 5-1, 2-0
Last time out: North Johnston won its Homecoming game over Washington, 28-14, while West Craven enjoyed a bye.
Massey Rating spread: West Craven -33.5
Media Watch: NFHS ($)
HighSchool OT playoff projection: North Johnston, 17th seed
Breakdown: While West Craven is a good football team, someone needs to install a few firmware updates on the Massey computer for spitting out this 33.5-point spread.
The transitive property tells us that since West Craven beat North Pitt by a point and Washington by 30, its a little better than the Panthers, who lost to the former by 16 and beat the latter by 14.
The Eagles’ lone loss was to 7A New Bern, and they were picked in the preseason coaches’ poll to win this league. I haven’t seen much (aside from Eastern Wayne) that makes me doubt it.
Prediction: West Craven 42, North Johnston 20
princeton at spring creek
Records: Princeton 3-3, 0-2 Swine Valley 2A/3A; Spring Creek 0-7, 0-2
Last time out: Princeton fell at home to Wallace-Rose Hill, 49-16, while Spring Creek lost to Rosewood, 40-0.
Massey Rating spread: Princeton -41.5
Media Watch: NFHS ($)
HighSchool OT playoff projection: Princeton, 13th seed
Breakdown: Princeton may not be having the season it would like to be having, but at least it isn’t Spring Creek. The Gators have scored 22 points in seven games, and are in no shape to deal with the Princeton offense.
Prediction: Princeton 46, Spring Creek 6
american leadership academy at louisburg
Records: American Leadership Academy 4-3, 0-2 Quad County 2A/3A/4A; Louisburg 6-0, 1-0
Last time out: ALA lost at home to Bunn, 41-15, while Louisburg stayed perfect by edging Nash Central, 16-15.
Massey Rating spread: Louisburg -33.5
Media Watch: NFHS ($)
HighSchool OT playoff projection: ALA, 11th seed
Breakdown: On the surface, this big spread makes sense. The Warriors are 6-0, after all. The issue I have is the fact that their opponents’ combined record is 10-25, and they got all they could handle from a 1-5 team last week.
So, is Louisburg better? Probably. Way better? Unlikely.
That being said, it’s time for American Leadership Academy to make its move. The Patriots have dropped three of four and they’re about to face the meat of the Quad County schedule.
I think this game will be a little tighter than most folks think, and if it were being played here, I might actually lean toward an upset.
Prediction: Louisburg 27, American Leadership Academy 21